Archive | March 2016

Laboring

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In some respects, this is a golden age for labor. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.9% from a high of 10% in October 2009. It’s not quite as low as the 3.8% in early 2000, or the post-war low of 2.5% in 1953, but it’s pretty close to full employment. The broadest measure of unemployment (U-6, which includes discouraged as well as part-time workers who would like full-time jobs) is somewhat elevated, but has fallen sharply to 9.7%, from a high of 17.1%. 143 million Americans are employed, the most ever. The average wage is over $25/hour, also the Read More


In A Hole

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Two months ago, I offered some hope that drop we saw on the first day of 2016 was a good omen for the rest of the month and year (http://blog.angelesadvisors.com/2016/01/apres-moi-le-deluge/).  I noted that, of the 14 opening day declines since 1928, only 3 (1957, 1978, 2008) portended weak first months. And while 1957 and 2008 were down years for US equities, 1978 was positive. So there was hope (statistically). Forget it. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics (as Mark Twain wrote), and this statistic certainly lied. US stocks lost 5% in January, with another fractional loss in February, making this Read More