Author Archive | Michael Rosen

Reversal

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I’m interpreting the spike down last week and the strong rebound in the past few days as bullish. See the chart below from Friday’s close (courtesy of our friends at Merrill). We have held our positions in our model portfolios, neither panicking during the deluge nor trying to catch the bottom of this short-term move. Remember that much of what happens hour-to-hour, day-to-day, week-to-week, even year-to-year, has (or should have) little practical impact on long-term investors. Let’s make sure we have the cash to pay the bills and cover reasonable contingencies; after that, we can be largely indifferent to the Read More


Consider

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Consider: Volatility spiked to its highest level in over 2 years. Global equities are in negative territory this year, led by Europe’s 10% decline. US 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 30 basis points intra-day yesterday. Consider, too: Mortgage rates are down 100 basis points over the past year Jobless claims are at their lowest levels in 15 years Housing prices nationally are up 7% in the past year Gasoline prices are off 20% this year I have no idea where the bottom is, or when we will get there. But if you believe the US economy remains reasonably robust Read More


MLPs

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Some historical data from Credit Suisse below: MLPs are off 14% this month, pretty bad. Subsequent performance (no guarantees) looks pretty strong though.


Panic!

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Like Scary Nights at Universal Studios (where my daughter went this weekend), it really is scary out there. I Walked into the office looking at a 300-point drop  in the Dow and a +10% jump in 10-year Treasuries. I doubt anyone woke up this morning and decided that sub-2% yields for the next decade is actually a great investment. No, it’s a classic sign of panic. I have no idea how much further we fall, but it’s not a black hole we’re in. I don’t believe in catching falling knives (throwing metaphors around this morning), but I see the markets Read More


US economic growth

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So, US economic growth is outpacing the rest of the developed world (and much of the non-developed, um, emerging, world), as seen in these charts (thanks to Goldman Sachs). But will we converge, and if so, will it be a positive (the world rises to the US) or negative (US drops) convergence? I don’t really know (who really does?). But the US is the most self-contained economy in the world (outside of sub-Saharan Africa), thus the woes of the world impact the US much less than any other country. Rather than worry about the US economy, it’s the EM markets Read More