Nice graphic in today’s FT showing the spike in vol and sell-off in risk (Greek bond yields jumped from 5.5% to 9% in the past few days). I still think this is mostly noise, a normal, and overdue, correction. But, stay tuned….
It’s been 3 years since US equities have corrected more than 10%. But there’s no law about how long rallies can last without a correction. In any event, as diversified, well-positioned investors (as, of course, we believe we are), does it really matter if stocks fall 10%? or 20%? If it does matter, you probably have the wrong portfolio. For the rest of us, volatility really does equal opportunity.
Consider: Volatility spiked to its highest level in over 2 years. Global equities are in negative territory this year, led by Europe’s 10% decline. US 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 30 basis points intra-day yesterday. Consider, too: Mortgage rates are down 100 basis points over the past year Jobless claims are at their lowest levels in 15 years Housing prices nationally are up 7% in the past year Gasoline prices are off 20% this year I have no idea where the bottom is, or when we will get there. But if you believe the US economy remains reasonably robust Read More
Some historical data from Credit Suisse below: MLPs are off 14% this month, pretty bad. Subsequent performance (no guarantees) looks pretty strong though.
Like Scary Nights at Universal Studios (where my daughter went this weekend), it really is scary out there. I Walked into the office looking at a 300-point drop in the Dow and a +10% jump in 10-year Treasuries. I doubt anyone woke up this morning and decided that sub-2% yields for the next decade is actually a great investment. No, it’s a classic sign of panic. I have no idea how much further we fall, but it’s not a black hole we’re in. I don’t believe in catching falling knives (throwing metaphors around this morning), but I see the markets Read More
So, US economic growth is outpacing the rest of the developed world (and much of the non-developed, um, emerging, world), as seen in these charts (thanks to Goldman Sachs). But will we converge, and if so, will it be a positive (the world rises to the US) or negative (US drops) convergence? I don’t really know (who really does?). But the US is the most self-contained economy in the world (outside of sub-Saharan Africa), thus the woes of the world impact the US much less than any other country. Rather than worry about the US economy, it’s the EM markets Read More