Angeles Advisors | Blog

  • Blog posts are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen

    Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, and investment consultant.

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Après moi le déluge

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In more ways than one…. We greeted the new year with an actual deluge, at least here in California, as the long-promised El Niño swooped in with force. Mudslides and traffic accidents are the prices we will pay to replenish (but only partly) our water reserves. We were also greeted by a deluge in the markets, kicked off by Shanghai’s 7% decline on the first trading day of 2016 as investors there spent the holidays musing over the state of the Chinese economy and concluded it is not good. The ripple traveled around the globe, although dissipating with distance, as Read More


A Year-End Thought

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This week, my college basketball team visited southern California, and I was lucky enough to spend some time with them over the past few days. I found myself re-connecting to my own seminal experience 35 years ago, when I was part of that team. The intense camaraderie of that time established lifetime relationships that are among the most treasured I have. The current crop of players cannot yet fully appreciate how meaningful this is. In time, they will. Sports is, by definition, competitive, and we keep track of our wins and losses. I’m certain that my teams won more games than we lost, but I really Read More


Path to Progress

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Zimbabwe is a country of 14 million people. I’ve never been there, and I can’t recall if I’ve ever met anyone from there, but I’m sure that the vast majority of Zimbabweans are very pleasant people. I’ll also stipulate that the vast majority are hard-working, although that may be difficult to prove. Of the 14 million people in the country, just 700,000 are considered officially employed. I’m not sure what the other 13,300,000 people are doing every day, but this astonishing fact highlights for me the depth of the challenge for so many countries. Perhaps few are as abject failures as Zimbabwe, but Read More


O Pais do Futuro

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Charles de Gaulle (photo below)—imperious, disdainful, utterly French (and venerated for it in France)—noted 50 years ago that “Brazil was the country of the future.” With more than 200 million people and encompassing nearly 3.3 million square miles (about the size of the United States), Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world by population and area, and the 9th largest economy. It would seem that the future for Brazil has arrived. Unfortunately, it is more like back to the future. Brazil is in the midst of a classic balance of payments problem. It’s growth in the past decade had been Read More


Under My Thumb

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As Mick Jagger sang (screeched?) 50 years ago. The song was about turning the tables on a domineering woman (The girl who once had me down). A bit sexist, to be sure, but the song came to mind when looking at this week’s government bond auctions around the world (isn’t my life fascinating?). Our clients have been complaining about the low yields they are earning (as if I controlled that), and my response has been: count your blessings. You can lend the US government money for a year and earn half of a percent (50 cents per $100), or extend Read More


Fairy Tales

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The technology bubble of the late 1990s is a distant memory for most investors, and an ignorance for the rest. But back then, companies were raising huge sums of private capital on business plans made of fairy dust, which is precisely what all that money turned into. Over a span of a little more than a year (4Q 1999 to 4Q 2000), well over $100 billion was funneled to private companies. Very little of it was ever returned to investors. Over this past year, just over $50 billion has been invested in private companies, the most since the bubble era, Read More


Patricia

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It’s another beautiful day in Santa Monica: blue skies, a few high wisps of stratus clouds. But 1500 miles south of here is the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. It will slam into Mexico tonight and will likely continue into Texas in a few days. Patricia is a Category 5 storm, with sustained winds in excess of 200 mph. This morning, the NOAA recorded 880 millibars of pressure, the lowest ever (1013 millibars is “normal” pressure at sea level). The satellite image below looks benign, just another cloud layer, but that’s very deceptive. Patricia is powerful. Experts Read More


I’m Swiss

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No question, this has been a challenging year. Virtually every financial asset class is struggling. Stocks are down, bonds are down, gold is down, oil is down. US is down, non-US is down. Large caps down, small caps down. Industrials, financials, health care: all down. High-grade bonds, low-grade bonds: down. Japan’s economy has flat-lined, Europe rejoices if GDP growth is fractionally above zero, and Chinese passengers should assume the crash position before their economy hard-lands. And in the US, there are a handful of crazy people running for president, some even leading in the polls. Most of the above statements Read More


Ursa Minor

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The bears are stirring. Not yet rampaging, but there’s a lot of red ink across most markets. Today’s jobs report was weak. No honey-coating it, it was a treat for the bears. Payrolls rose 142,000, well below the 200,000 expected, and a jump in government jobs hid a weaker private sector rise of 118,000. July and August were revised lower, so the employment picture weakened substantially in the 3rd quarter. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1%, only because there was a huge (350,000) reduction in the labor force, bringing the labor participation rate to 62.4%, the lowest since 1977. About Read More


Yogi

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Baseball, more than any other sport, by far, has drawn its share of colorful characters. I don’t know why that is, but it is. This week, we lost one of the greatest, maybe the greatest, of all-time, with the passing of Yogi Berra. Yogi was easy to underestimate. He was barely over 5 1/2 feet tall, pudgy (i.e., kind of fat), with a face that looked like a child put together with a play set. His malapropisms were frequent and famous (example: on Yogi Berra Day in his hometown of St. Louis he thanked the crowd for making this day necessary). Read More