Angeles Advisors | Blog

  • Blog posts are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen

    Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, and investment consultant.


Talkin’ Turkey


The expression comes from Colonial America, but its exact origins are unclear, and its meaning seems to have changed over the years. Originally it was a phrase that denoted pleasant, or even silly, conversation. Today, “talk turkey” means plain, direct speech. Just the facts (ma’am).  So, let’s talk turkey. Turkey is a mess, on many levels, and it’s all self-inflicted. It is classic economic mismanagement for narrow political purposes, a pattern we’ve seen (literally) hundreds of times.  Its symptoms are predictable, its cure is obvious, but the prognosis is bleak. Politics and personality are turning a manageable economic crisis into Read More

Not Beach Reading


I love the beach. And I read a lot. I like reading on the beach, but I am not a fan of beach reading. Beach reading is generally defined as light, pleasurable, contemporary fiction, often with some romantic angle. This is a genre I could not imagine more unappealing. So none of these qualify as “beach reading,” but here are a few of the highlights of my reading list since my last update six months ago ( Politics/History/Society Enemies and Neighbors, Ian Black. There is no ground-breaking research or insight here, but I found this to be the most balanced Read More

Everybody Out’ta the Pool


Markets work through the forces of demand and supply. This axiom applies to all markets, from housing to marriage (as Gary Becker famously noted), and anywhere there is an exchange of goods or services (or mates). In all markets, price is the regulatory mechanism that ensures an equilibrium between the amount demanded and the amount supplied. Adam Smith called this the “Invisible Hand.” You knew all this already, because it is about as fundamental a concept in economics as exists. The price of that house is X, or the price of that automobile is Y, because X and Y are Read More

Updating the Triangle


Last year, I introduced my big picture framework of assessing the relative attractiveness of markets Inside the Triangle through the lenses of valuation, momentum and sentiment. To recap, the ideal time to buy a market is when valuation is cheap, momentum is positive and sentiment is poor. It’s best to sell when the opposites prevail: expensive valuation, poor momentum and exuberant sentiment. The 2000 internet bubble is a recent case-in-point for conditions at a market top, and March 2009 a time when the conditions to buy were very favorable. Of course, most investors find it hard to sell at the Read More

(Not) Recommended Reading


I don’t like recommended lists. They turn experiences into a contest (and the winner is…), and one reviewer’s preferences may have little to do with mine. That said, since my writing covers a very wide range of topics—history and sociology to science and art and beyond—I do get asked frequently where I come up with my themes. The answer is simply, I read a lot. More than a book a week, for sure, although I don’t really keep count (or rank). I don’t necessarily assume you would enjoy anything that I did, but, to give you a peek at some Read More

Hot As Hell


Hell is hot, as everyone knows. Everyone “knows” this, but there really is no conclusive evidence: no eyewitness reports, no scientific instruments to measure the temperature in Hell. So, how do we “know” that Hell is hot? Well, mostly from Dante Alighieri. In the Inferno, part of his opus magnus, La Commedia Divina (The Divine Comedy, subject of our 3Q 2007 letter,, there are Nine Circles of Hell, each with eternal punishment of increasing severity, depending on one’s earthly behavior. The Sixth Circle is reserved for heretics, condemned to eternal existence in flaming tombs. The Seventh Circle is for Read More

It’s About Time


“Lost Time is never found again,” advised Benjamin Franklin in Poor Richard’s Almanack. And Dante Alighieri observed, “The wisest are the most annoyed at the loss of time.” I have been thinking about replacing my seven year-old car, which has me reflecting on the notion of Lost Time. Americans average 42 hours per year in rush hour traffic, but of course, in Los Angeles it’s much more. We each sit in rush hour 104 hours per year, the worst in the world (all data here come from the definitive source of global traffic data, INRIX Research). Moscow, New York, San Read More

For What It’s Worth


In the summer of 1966, throngs of young people crowded the Sunset Strip in Los Angeles to hear their favorite bands. Over at the Sunset Tower, Jim Morrison and the Doors were the house band, finishing up their first album (The Doors, with Light My Fire, and Break On Through, among other classics). Not to be outdone, a former policeman from Chicago, Elmer Valentine, opened the Whisky-A-Go-Go, featuring dancers in mini-skirts suspended in the air in a cage, thus inventing the Go-Go dancers. The Whisky also had a house band working on their debut album. The year before, 1965, the Read More

Toes in the Sand


For me, and I think I speak for everyone on the planet, the feeling of warm sand between the toes is one of life’s great pleasures. And for virtually everyone on the planet, including those of us who look at a beach every day (ok, I may be rubbing it in), we don’t give sand much thought: it’s just there. But sand is more than pretty beaches; it’s big business. And it’s gotten to be even bigger business with the advent of the Shale Revolution. That’s because a lot of subsurface rocks that contain oil and gas lack permeability, which Read More

Not Dead Yet


According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the self-acclaimed arbiter of economic debate in this country, the current economic expansion began in June 2009, meaning we just passed eight years of uninterrupted growth. This is now the third longest period of economic growth since the Civil War (see chart below). In May next year, we will pass the second-longest expansion, and if we can get to the summer of 2019 without a dip, we’ll have a new record. Will we get there? And does it matter? The answers are, probably and yes. To answer the first part, we Read More